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Welcome to GFN - From The Floor » Commentary @import url( http://www.gfn.com/fromthefloorblog/wp-content/themes/gfn/style.css ); .search_head { text-decoration: none; } .search_head:hover { text-decoration: none; } New Member? Sign up Search: From The Floor » Commentary The Morning News April 18th, 2008 by Walter Schubert If you’re in finance, a stock market investor, or just a plain channel surfer….yup, a channel surfer in the morning, I gotta believe that watching Bloomberg, CNBC, MSN, CNN ….all the “financial channels” has got to be one of the most boring - even tortuous - under-goings in life. Ā Every day, there’s the cute guy, or hot woman asking the absolutely most absurdly obvious questions of ‘wall street analysts’ - those old men from Dickens fame who wore green eye shades, worked until midnight, and only got yelled at by Scrooge in the morning for being 5 minutes late. Ā OK….my point…These “experts” NEVER get it right. And in many cases they don’t even come close. Take this morning for example…OIL tycoon T Boone Pickens admitted that he - the granddaddy of all oil traders” got it wrong, in a recent bet he made in the market. Ā Bottom line, if your having too much fun in-the morning during your workout, or just want a good laugh, at the sheer stupidity of these talking heads trying to predict the future, turn the dial to any one of the three channels that I just mentioned. Of course, if you tune into CNN, you’ll get a bit more blood and carnage out of Iraq. Ā What a way to start the day eh?….watching idiots who are worse then weathermen at predicting the future of the stock market, or watching an Iraqi child or American Trooper being rushed to the emergency medical care facility.Ā Ā Ā Posted in Commentary | No Comments » Buy on Bad News - Sell on Good News April 17th, 2008 by Walter Schubert For as long as I’ve been pacing the corridors of Wall Street …now after 30 yearsĀ and considered what Eddie Murphy would say is - the ‘old man at the club’, I’ve learned a few things; one of which is sometimes bad news isn’t always so bad and may even be good news / opportunity….Emphasis though is on sometimes! This morning the big news is that Merrill Lynch is reporting a larger than expected loss, with lower revenues, and the company in response will be cutting 4000 jobs. The CEO - John Thain is a personal friend of mine, as I got to know him when he took over after Dick Grasso at the NYSE. Well, my point is this, John is no shrinking violet, is able to make the tough decisions, and is a strategic thinker. Merrill has ample cash on hand to whether this and future storms, and well, I’m a believer in this man, and his team. Ā So… this is, in my humble opinion, one of those ‘bad news’ stories that does not headline - “The End is Near” - the end of Merrill Lynch that is. Ā Personally, I’m a buyer, and a believer in John Thain and the fabulous team he has assembled at this fine American Brokerage firm. Posted in Commentary | No Comments » Bank Earnings boost market … President Bush’s ‘can’t do’ attitude on Greenhouse gases a dissapointment April 16th, 2008 by Walter Schubert The Dow is up over 200 pointsĀ as investors are heartened by encourtagingĀ earnings news from the likes of non other than two banksĀ JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. While the earning reports weren’t great,Ā Ā that they weren’t disastrousĀ is what got everyone into happy mode.Ā Ā But while I’m watching the news ticker, I’m also watching the leader of the free world, President George Bush talk about global warming, and how “we are going to stop the growth of greenhouse gasses by 2025″. WOW…that’s pretty ambitious….2025. Ā His lack of faith in the American people’s inability to stop the “growth” in greenhouse gases by say 2015 is so underwhelming, so uninspiring, that it literallyĀ makes me sick! Ā Whatever happened to the ‘can do’ spirit of this great country? Ā While I’m on the ‘can do’ spirit of the American people, I’m wondering if the Congress might catch a bit of ‘can do’ spirit and cut spending. If the dollar keeps falling pretty soon a hotel room in New York which would cost $250 a night, will cost $600 inĀ London. Ā Thanks George…you’re doing a great job….I know what I would like you to do, and that is go clear some brush at the ranch and really try … no I mean really, really tryĀ not to do any more damage than you have alreadyĀ to this country. Posted in Commentary | No Comments » An Idea which may stop the killing of American Soldiers in Iraq. April 10th, 2008 by Walter Schubert Yesterday whilst riding the subway with a good friend, we were talking about the fact that there seems to be no great deterrent to the sniping and killing of American Soldiers in Iraq. He has an idea, which I like very much. Ā The Idea: Ā Every-time an American or coalition troop is killed in Iraq, the United States takes 100,000 barrels of Iraqi oil and uses some of the proceeds to give to the family of the trooper who was killed, some of the proceeds to give to an Iraqi citizen who fingers the murderer, and some of the proceeds to feed the hungry and homeless in America. The killing of 10 troopers = 1 million barrels of oil or at $112 per barrel = $112 million. Maybe then the Iraqi government would getĀ some spine, deal with the bad actors and create some stability within their country. Ā Walter Schubert ps….the individual who gave me this idea, wished not to be named as he is a prominent figure on Wall Street. Posted in Commentary | 2 Comments » The Foreclosure - ‘Pending Sale’ Problem - the FED needs to attach some strings to the Banks April 8th, 2008 by Walter Schubert OK….so you haven’t paid your mortgage for 6 months, the bank is going to foreclose on your property, and the buyer that wants to ‘buy on the cheap’, can’t get financing because his credit score isn’t above 720. Round and Round they go, and where the “bottom” in the housing market is -Ā nobody knows. But one thing for sure, I’ve noticed on my block 3 homes that have been “Under Contract” for over 6 months. What is this….a lawyers dream? A 6 month contract negotiation? Maybe.. God knows how lawyers like to debate what the definition of “is” Ā is. But really that the banks are still, after unprecedented and gigantic infusions of capital from the Federal Reserve Bank, the commercial banksĀ are still unwilling to make loans. The FED needs to get tough and attach some strings to this ‘bail out’ partyĀ punch bowlĀ thats been gushingĀ hundreds of billions of dollars over the past 6 months.Ā Either the Federal ReserveĀ - shut down the party,Ā and stop bailing outĀ commercial banks, or they bring out more bug juiceĀ with the caveat, that “they” the commercial banksĀ start lendingĀ ASAP.Ā No moreĀ FED money untilĀ banksĀ start lending!Ā Tags: q Posted in Commentary | No Comments » The “Pro’s” are starting to say that the ‘bottom’ has been established April 7th, 2008 by Walter Schubert I used to have a friend who once said that the only ‘bottom’Ā he picked had blond hair and wore a bikini. He later married her, and well…what he thought was the ‘bottom” wasn’t and three years later he was divorced. This is to say that, yes…there is some much needed ‘feel good’ coming back into the market with the recent rally and Bear Stearns taking the fall for the rest of Wall Street. But the market isĀ having trouble breaking through 12,650 on the Dow Jones Averages. The first quarter earnings parade is starting to march down Wall Street, much will be determined by the first quarter earnings reports as to whether the current market stability can be sustained. Today, everyone is talking about the hostile takeover between Microsoft and Yahoo. Where’s Judge Judy when we need her. Now that’s would be entertaining, because this hostile takeover and the back and forth isn’t very ‘high drama’ for the average Joe on Main Street. This week the big economic reports that will drive the markets are Pending Home Sales due out tomorrow, Chain Store Sales on Thursday,Ā on Friday the Consumer Sentiment data. Ā All in all…I remain a seller on strength…that means any rallies, I would rather sell into THIS uncertain market - (we’re not exaclty climbing a ‘wall or worry yet’). Of course, if someone asks me if I believe we’ve seen the bottom in the market, I’ll have to punt on that one. Now if someone asks me if I’ve seen a bottomĀ … well….from a distance of courseĀ I have ! Ā Ā Posted in Commentary | No Comments » Keeping It Simple March 24th, 2008 by Walter Schubert The recent collapse of Bear Stearns, and all of the pain and anguish that has accompanied it, mainlyĀ by the employees and retirees should heighten the call for a review of the line between greed and good business practices…and ‘ethical’ behavior.Ā Ā The shareholders took this one on the chin both the institutional, and the widow Masterson. I feel terrible for this porr woman who was living off of the dividends,Ā and am just a little more than a tad angry at the institutional investor. Between the board of directors, and the institutional investors, there is one word which explains this whole debacle perfectly - “greed”. Ā Financial Services and Wall Street can be a wonderful place to work; to earn a respectable living, even by most standards, an incredible living. But like speed - “greed” kills too. As the regulators, members of congress, market participants, boards of directors, and institutional shareholders all gather round the table of feigned or real remorse, a heaping dish of humble pie MUSTĀ be served up for all to eat. And then there ought to beĀ a large pitcher ofĀ Kool-Aid — enough for everyone at the table. Ā In real terms what’s desperatly needed is something very much like the ’speed trap’.Ā But that suggestsĀ a speed limit doesn’t it?Ā The market needs a speed limit (margin limits to be raised) and ‘greed trap’ -Ā and regulators armed with a technology gun, and a set of stiff handcuffs, should any Wall Street big shot think that he can greed anytime he or she wants to.Ā Heck the demise of the trading floor of the NYSE was because the world wanted to buy and sell stocks in “milliseconds” instead of minutes. The desire to ‘go fast’ trumped’ the desire to get the best price which means going slow sometimes. Ā The need for speed, and the ugly and base human emotion of wanting more and more right now, is what has caused Bear Stearns to collapse, the sub prime mess, and most other current economic problems. Ā At the risk of sounding like a spiritualist…the main ingredient to a permanent fix of these kinds of problems, is to realize that happiness and fulfillment in life, real success, is not measured by the size of ones bank balance, but by the size of ones heart, and what one does with the blessings that have been given - yes ‘given’ to them. Ā Everytime I meet a guy from Wall Street who was born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple…I smile and say to myself…’its just a matter of time, before he gets thrown out of the game! Respectfully, Walter Schubert Posted in Commentary | 1 Comment » More Bad News - As predicted - Inflation starting to become a problem February 29th, 2008 by Walter Schubert U.S. real consumer spending was unchanged in January for the third time in the past four months as the economic slump deepened. Inflation jumped in January, eating away almost all the increase in personal incomes. Nominal spending rose 0.4%, the Commerce Department reported Friday, but the 0.4% increase in the inflation rate left real consumer spending flat. OK folks out there in the heartland… While Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve this week testified before Chairman Franks Financial Services Committee that he was more concerned about prospects for growth in the economy, he was also as a secondary concern, worried about the prospects for inflation as money became cheaper. Then…add on top of this the employment figures that are starting to show a slowdown…and we have one of the more scary scenarios known as “Stagflation”. This is when unemployment his high, inflation is high, economic growth is slow, and interest rates to combat high inflation begin to rise. This ain’t a pretty picture for sure. I can’t for the life of me understand why President Bush, and other administration officials are still saying that we aren’t in a recession. Geeez…with gas at the pumps solidly above the $3 level, there isn’t much room left for the American Consumer to purchase anything other than gas and food. What are these idiots thinking?? The only recipe to stave off a deep recession is to cut spending dramatically. That’s why we need to get out of Iraq as soon as possible. That’s why we need to reduce the U.S. Debt because of the interest payments. That’s why we need to cut back on entitlement programs. That’s why we need to legalize all drugs…the war on drugs is a farce and designed only for us to pay for a larger police force and to keep petty addicts in expensive prisons. That’s why we need to stop funding ridiculous research projects like how to grow a better mushroom That’s why we need to stop funding big agriculture with subsidies. I could go on… but I think one can get the point. Posted in Commentary | No Comments » Oil at $100 a Barrel - Again! February 19th, 2008 by Walter Schubert OK…I’ve been not only a bear in this market, selling on any strength, and holding much more cash than normal - like 50%, but actually going out on a limb and talking about it. (see previous posts.)Ā Anyway…today, as theĀ price of oil surges once again above the $100 per barrel mark, only confirms what I believe to be another nail in the coffin to the recession argument. Ā These ’stimulus’ packages, and tax rebates, and other ’shots in the arm’ are no match for the clubbing that the American consumer is getting when gasoline is over $3.50 a gallon. All the talking heads on Bloomberg, and CNBC, all the comments from Paulson, and Bernake, add up to nothing. These people need to level with theĀ American people by telling them that the party of borrow and spend is OVER…Finito, Fertig ! There’s a big jug of Kool Aid that must be consumed. The Kool Aid is the acceptance by the American people that ‘entitlement programs’ and the endless spending by the government is unsustainable. Spending must be cut dramatically, and taxes in some form need to be raised. Ā May I suggest the following: A 10% tax on gasoline. This would push the American people to get off oil consumption. The use of proceeds would go towards reducing the debt, and research for alternative energy sources. Ā Next blog will talk about how to solve the immigration problem. There’s money the be made there too. Ā Sorry to sound so mercenary, but sometimes reality sucks! Walter Schubert Posted in Commentary | 4 Comments » Exxon Profits - How To Make Money and Hurt Exxon At The Same Time! February 1st, 2008 by Walter Schubert Giant anti gay oil company, Exxon Mobil (the company still has not adopted a non discrimination based on sexual orientation policy into its corporate credo)…posted a jaw dropping $117 billion in quarterly revenues generating 14% profit growth. This is great news if you are an investor in the stock. This is great news if you are an LGBT investor in the stock. What..you ask?! Is Schubert saying LGBT people should own shares in Exxon Mobil? The simple answer is yes; for three reasons: If you’re a long term investor, Exxon has never failed to deliver a steady profit, and solid dividends. While the earnings per share is about $ 6.00 and the profit margin is about 10%, (ranking the company in the bottom 20% of companies in the U.S.)… its a company that never fails to deliver consistent profitable results. I use the dividend from Exxon Mobil to buy gas at Chevron or BP (both have an HRC Corporate Equality Index Rating of 100). I can participate in annual shareholder meetings and vote to have Exxon Mobil include a non discrimination based on sexual orientation policy into their general anti discrimination policy statement. - Great way of venting steam at someone - something - for the rage I feel at times in this wacky country that argues about whether gay people can or should be able to marry. So…given I’m a gay man, and that life is short, and gas prices are through the roof, I try anything to reduce the pain at the pump and, in the heart. Owning Exxon stock, and using the dividends to buy gas at BP or Chevron…suits me just fine. Posted in Commentary | No Comments » « Older Entries Advertise with Us | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service © 1998-2007 GFN Financial, Inc. 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